Shopping carts rise 30%: a map of price increases from coffee to bread (with the exception of wine)

Driving this growth are primarily a few everyday products: coffee, extra virgin olive oil, and various vegetables have seen prices rise significantly, changing Italians' purchasing habits. It's no coincidence that the share of families reporting they've reduced the quantity or quality of products they purchase has risen from 24% to 31% in just three years. And the outlook for the fall is no longer reassuring: according to Codacons estimates, between utility bills, fuel, food, and school expenses, the additional bill for an average family could reach over 600 euros in the next quarter.

The products that weigh most on the wallet

A closer look at the data reveals a very mixed picture: not all food prices have increased equally, and some categories have seen significantly above-average increases. Coffee, for example, is among the hardest hit, with an increase of over 50% over the last five years; extra virgin olive oil has also seen a jump of nearly 50%. Among the most commonly used vegetables, tomatoes, potatoes, and eggplants have all seen prices rise by over 40%, while meat, both beef and chicken, have increased by approximately 30% and 34%, respectively.

Even products considered "essential" in the Italian pantry have not been spared: eggs, rice, and bread are 25% more expensive, as are pasta and canned tuna. Even breakfast has become more expensive, with milk, yogurt, and biscuits now costing significantly more than a few years ago. The exception is table wine, which is among the very few products to have seen a minimal increase, well below the general average. Table wine has not been fully impacted by inflation because the Italian supply chain has absorbed most of the production increases, with price dynamics unrelated to financial commodity markets.

International data confirm this trend: the FAO Food Price Index, which tracks global agricultural commodity prices, reached its highest level since early 2023 in July, though it remains far from the peak reached in spring 2022, immediately after the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine. This signal confirms that geopolitical tensions and international markets continue to influence, albeit to varying degrees, how much we pay each day to fill our shopping carts.

How Italians' purchasing habits are changing

Faced with these increases, Italian families have gradually changed their shopping habits. As mentioned, the percentage of households reporting having reduced the quantity or quality of products purchased has grown significantly in recent years, from about a quarter of families to nearly a third. This is a significant shift, reflecting very concrete daily choices: replacing some products with cheaper alternatives, reducing purchases of goods considered non-essential, or opting for private labels and products on promotion.

It should also be remembered that the increase in food prices over the past five years has significantly exceeded the overall inflation rate over the same period: a gap that weighs particularly heavily on lower-income families, for whom food expenditure represents a larger share of their overall budget. Making the situation even more delicate, according to the unions, is the loss of purchasing power of real wages, which have fallen by more than 8% since 2021: a combination that is making it increasingly difficult for many families to maintain their eating habits.

Looking ahead to the coming months, the outlook does not seem to point to an imminent trend reversal. Several observers point out that international tensions in agricultural commodity markets could continue to put pressure on prices, fueling the risk of further price increases in the short term.

Not just spending: a dramatic overall increase is expected in autumn

Higher prices, moreover, aren't just affecting the grocery cart: according to estimates released by Codacons, between the end of summer and fall, Italian families will face an overall increase in expenses that could exceed €600 per quarter, including electricity and gas bills and school fees. Added to this are fuel price increases—with an estimated increase of up to €145 per quarter for diesel drivers—and back-to-school expenses, estimated to increase by around €30 compared to last year. This overall picture, when combined with food price increases, reveals the true extent of the high cost of living that is impacting family budgets.